What’s big last week?

Mining/Minerals: Anglo American rejects BHP’s two follow-up offers; Chile's CORFO boosts Albemarle's lithium quota by 50%; IEA’s Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024; Nickel rises amid riots in New Caledonia; AustralianSuper builds A$12 billion critical minerals portfolio

Batteries/EVs: Stellantis in nickel game

Hello from the beautiful jungle in Ciales, Puerto Rico this week — sharing a picture of the view while I’m writing this week’s newsletter :)

I’m spending some time on the island after finishing my degree in Energy and Environment at Columbia University (more exciting gigs to be announced!)

Besides reading and yoga-ing much more often now with all the free time, I thought it would be fun to connect with more of you. Whether you're interested in minerals, batteries/ EVs, China, or even travel tips in PR, let’s have a fun e-meetup — just reply to this email :)

Also, I’m looking into direct lithium extraction and China’s overseas mineral investments lately. If any of these interest you or you have thoughts on them, drop me a note!!

Mining/ Minerals

Anglo American is transitioning to a pure-play copper miner by shedding diamond, platinum, and coal mining businesses in a massive restructuring. It is estimated that more than half of its pro forma EBITDA will come from copper by 2026. This restructuring is seen by many as a defensive move against BHP's previous acquisition attempt, as it follows the exact ‘playbook’ BHP requested in its initial bid.  

As of May 22, Anglo American has rejected all three of BHP’s bids and extended the deadline for BHP to make a binding offer. BHP’s latest bid is £38.6 billion, up from the initial £31.1 billion in April.

Time is ticking for BHP as it is under pressure from many potential rivals, such as Glencore, whose CEO recently defended South Africa’s mining sector at a conference, praising its tax regime and improvements in infrastructure and power.

Why does copper matter?

• Each EV requires five times more copper than a traditional internal combustion car. To meet demand, the world needs to produce more copper between 2018 and 2050 than was ever produced before 2018, requiring the opening of six new mines annually. Take the US as an example, copper can't be mined fast enough to electrify the country – “The average time between discovering a new copper mineral deposit and getting a permit to build a mine is about 20 years.”

• The recent “Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024” published by IEA estimates that, by 2035, the projected lithium supply will meet only 50% of global demand, while copper resources will cover just over two-thirds of demand. To alleviate potential supply strains, increased recycling, innovation, behavioral changes, and around $800 billion in mining investment by 2040 will be crucial.

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Chile's CORFO agreed to increase Albemarle's lithium production quota by 240,000 metric tons, a nearly 50% rise from the existing 240,000 metric tons of lithium metal equivalent (LME). To unlock the increased quota, Albemarle must use sustainable technology such as direct lithium extraction, consult indigenous communities, and obtain environmental permits.

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Riots in New Caledonia send up nickel price. New Caledonia, one of France's 12 overseas territories, faces riots over a voting law change, disrupting the capital Nouméa and causing global nickel prices to rise.

Even though cheap Indonesian nickel has been dominating most headlines lately, the small French island is the third-largest nickel producer in the world, accounting for roughly 6.3% of global mine production in 2023.

It's fascinating to see how mining serves as the primary economic pillar for such a small island, with nearly a quarter of its population working in the nickel industry. Nickel production in New Caledonia contributes 6% to the island's GDP.

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The largest Australian pension fund, AustralianSuper, has built a A$12 billion critical minerals portfolio and plans to expand it over the next five years. The A$335 billion fund hopes to increase investments in Australian companies involved in lithium, vanadium, rare earths, and other essential minerals for the energy transition.

The announcement came along with the government’s 'Future Made in Australia' initiative, as the Australian government plans to invest $19.7 billion over ten years to strengthen Australia's role as a renewable energy "superpower."

Batteries/ EVs

Stellantis is in talks with Vale and China’s Huayou to invest in a nickel smelter in Indonesia, joining other EV makers in upstream mineral investments. This could also be a win for Indonesia as it advances the country's position in the mineral supply chain.

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